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Gold Leaf Capital Management

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What’s Happened to Interest Rates?

What’s happened to interest rates?  Despite positive economic news that would normally nudge rates higher, today’s 10 Year Treasury is trading to yield 2.39%, down from 3.03% at year end.  Three reasons emerge:  A) Inflation is trending at or below … Read more…

The Market Never Ceases To Amaze

The market never ceases to amaze in its ability to shrug off bad news.  In the 2nd Q, the S&P 500 added a +5.2% gain on to the 1st Q’s +1.8% return.  This gain was despite the fact that 1st … Read more…

Fed cuts US growth forecast but market soars

After a two-day policy meeting, the Fed slashed its forecast for U.S. economic growth to a range of between 2.1% and 2.3% from an earlier forecast of around 2.9% (a significant haircut) but expressed confidence the recovery was largely on … Read more…

Stocks and Bonds Are Saying Two Different Things

Stocks and bonds are saying two different things.  The bond market is on a tear with the 10 Year Treasury recently touching a yield of 2.44% (an 11 month low).  Bond investors are clearly signaling that they perceive economic weakness … Read more…

Confusion In The Bond Market

The bond market is confused.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose +0.3% for April which was the fastest annual rate since March 2012.  Yet the 10 year Treasury yield has fallen from 3.03% at year end to 2.50% today.  Investors … Read more…