1st Quarter 2001 Market Commentary:

For Those Who Had, More Was Taken

After a painful year 2000, investors were shown little mercy during this year's 1st quarter.  The speculative excesses built up in the late 90's continued too be wrung from the market.  The S&P 500 index's tech sector was down another -25% from last year.  The supposedly "safe havens" such as healthcare and utilities were down -15% and -7% respectively.  With a +0.6% return, only the consumer cyclical stocks posted postive gains.  Truly, "for those who had, more was taken."  All returns are after dividends.

Gold Leaf is a lower risk investment firm that buys stocks when they are out of favor at lower multiples. On March 31st, portfolio attributes were:

Yield
'01 PE
Price/Book
Price/Cash Flow
Beta
GoldLeaf:
2.8%
14.4x
1.3
5.9
0.57
S&P 500:
1.3%
20.4x
3.7
12.8
1.00

Some of our beaten down stocks rallied during the Q: Service Corp. was up over +170%; JC Penney was up +48%.  Our largest holding is now cash at 8.1% of the portfolio followed by CMS Energy and Philip Morris.  All returns are after dividends.

We are excited about several of our purchases made during the Q.  We bought Topps Company, ticker TOPP, the maker of trading cards and candy.  Upcoming product extensions in the candy line, further trading card opportunities, and recent eBay trading successes should sustain earnings growth.  We also boought MedImmnue, ticker MEDI.  The company's lead product, Synagis, prevents respiratory infections in infants and will enjoy monopoly-like growth projected at +30% for the next three years.  We took profits in Summit Bank, Sempra Energy, Campbells, and Kelloggs.  Gold Leaf continues to search for undervalued companies with sustainable competitive advantages and free cash flows that generate long term value for our clients.

Apr 01, 2001
Paul F. Rodgers, CFA